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Nokia and Microsoft: Economics, risks of a 2-year transition to Windows Phone 7 by batterypower

Takeaway: The economics for Microsoft and Nokia may work out, but the biggest unknown is whether the phone maker can endure a two-year transition to Windows Phone 7 devices in a mobile world evolving so quickly.

This is a guest post from Larry Dignan of TechRepublic's sister site ZDNet. You can follow Larry on his ZDNet blog Between the Lines, or subscribe to the RSS feed.

For today, the focus of the Microsoft and Nokia partnership revolves around smartphones, Windows Phone 7 and HP pavilion dv6000 battery an app ecosystem, but the economics of the pact will soon move to the front. The biggest unknown is whether Nokia can endure a two-year transition to Windows Phone 7 devices in a mobile world evolving so quickly.

In many respects, the Microsoft-Nokia partnership is similar to the search pact the software giant has with Yahoo. Microsoft pays for share and the partner can focus, cut research and development spending and lay off employees to become more efficient.

Here's a look at what's known at the moment. Also see: Nokia/Microsoft partnership - Winners and losers

Benefits to Nokia:
•According to the New York Times, Nokia was offered "hundreds of millions" in engineering assistance and marketing support. Needless to say, Microsoft paid Nokia nicely.
•Nokia gets to pare down a bloated corporate structure. Nokia CEO Stephen Elop on Friday alluded to cost cutting, job retraining and layoffs ahead. Reuters notes that there may be "thousands of layoffs ahead."
•With a pared down structure, Nokia can focus, become more streamlined and potentially get a cut of future ad revenue via Bing and location based services.
•Microsoft's marketing budget can help Nokia break into the U.S. and open a new market.
•CNet News' Stephen Shankland quotes Elop: "We have different forms of value transfer in different directions. We have new opportunities that come from advertising and new forms of monetization." It's safe to say Nokia comes out ahead on the payment side of the equation.
•It's unclear what Nokia spent on software development, but this chart highlights how costs will be dropping dramatically. Nokia will ship Windows Phone 7 devices in volume in 2012 as Symbian is phased out, support costs will decline.

Benefits to Microsoft:
•Microsoft gets distribution for its Windows Phone 7 OS. It's unclear what the licensing arrangement is between Nokia and Microsoft, which will collect undisclosed royalties.
•The software giant dents what could have been mobile domination by Google.
•Microsoft will get more developers on board due to Nokia's global distribution.
•Note many of the benefits to Microsoft are intangible. Microsoft becomes a mobile player again, but as we know from the company's Internet efforts-profits can be elusive.
Risks to both:
The biggest risk to Nokia and Hp hstnn-lb42 battery Microsoft is the transition period. Nokia indicated a two year transition period to Windows Phone 7 devices. The smartphone market operates in dog years. Two years is an eternity and if consumers don't play ball with Nokia and Microsoft, both companies could become irrelevant.

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Doug Reid noted:

Nokia's planned transition period to a Windows Phone smartphone OS world appears to be slow. Notably, Nokia did not announce a Windows Phone product. Interim plans for multi-OS support to add to cost burden during long path to market share recovery. Curiously, Nokia plans to proceed later in 2011 with the introduction of a smartphone based on Nokia's MeeGo platform. Nokia also plans to continue to launch new Symbian-based devices, with plans to ship up to 150mn such devices. CEO Stephen Elop indicated that the agreement with Microsoft was non-exclusive and that 2011 and 2012 would both be transition years for Nokia. Nokia declined to provide clear guidance for 2011, citing uncertainty related to the OS transition.

In other words, this two-year transition period is going to mean some economic pain for Nokia. Barclays analyst Andrew Gardiner crunches a few numbers:

The one piece of financial guidance provided by Nokia was that they expected Devices and Services dell d620 battery  operating margins to return to greater than 10% following the transition period of 2011 and 2012. Implicitly, they are therefore guiding for margins to be below 10% in this year and next, which is below our current estimates of 11% and 13%.  This assumes a steady deterioration in industry gross margins.  Nokia currently posts 29% gross margins.

Bottom line: Nokia is in for a rough two years and when it emerges with Microsoft's mobile OS it's unclear what market share base it will be working from.

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Hp Microsoft Agreement
New HP and Microsoft Agreement to Simplify Technology Environments

Polycom takes UC beyond Mobile and Cloud…

To Acquire HP's Visual Collaboration Business Including Halo, Becomes an Exclusive Partner to HP for Telepresence and expands Strategic Relationships with Microsoft

Polycom, Inc. has made several significant announcements with its Polycom Open Collaboration Network partners that will dramatically change the visual communications and UC industry, accelerate adoption of UC, and deliver on Polycom's UC Everywhere vision. The first major announcement is that Polycom would be acquiring HP's Visual Collaboration business, including the Halo Products and Managed Services business.

Shane Robison, Executive Vice-President & Chief Strategy and Technology Officer, HP, has joined Polycom CEO Andy Miller during yesterday's webcast to discuss the strategic alliance. The companies also signed a strategic agreement that makes Polycom an exclusive partner to HP for telepresence and certain video UC solutions, including both resale and internal HP deployments, and integrates Polycom's video applications on HP's WebOS TouchPad product line.

"Customers will benefit from this transaction and alliance because they will receive the focus of two world-class technology companies through greater service and product opportunities," said Shane Robison, HP Executive VP & Chief Strategy and Technology Officer. "This transaction and alliance allows us to focus on executing our strategy in cloud computing and connectivity, while ensuring the long-term care of our customers and development of our services business."

Polycom also announced the revolutionary Open Visual Communications Consortium (OVCC), a breakthrough open video exchange cloud with the world's leading service providers that will enable visual communications beyond corporate firewalls and proprietary video platforms. In an unprecedented industry development, 14 top service providers around the globe have joined forces in OVCC to deliver B2B communication through the cloud. The founding members of OVCC include:  Airtel, AT&T, BCS Global, BT Conferencing, Cable&Wireless Worldwide, Global Crossing, Glowpoint, iFormata Communications, Masergy, Orange Business Services, PCCW Global, Telefonica, Telstra, and Verizon. The OVCC members will connect millions of users worldwide through agreements with hundreds of interconnected service providers across six continents.

Further, Polycom's Miller and Microsoft Corporate VP Gurdeep Singh Pall are all set to announce the development of two new breakthroughs in enterprise UC. These new solutions will expand the Microsoft and Polycom joint development and go-to-market activities on multiple fronts. As a strategic Microsoft UC solution partner, Polycom and Microsoft are already executing on six strategic agreements. Polycom previously announced SVC, the underlying technology that enables Polycom and Microsoft to deliver the industry's most powerful telepresence application to hundreds of millions of Microsoft desktops.

Not only this, Polycom will continue to drive deep, innovative end-to-end UC solutions with our full ecosystem of Polycom Open Collaboration Network partners, including Microsoft, HP, IBM, Juniper, BroadSoft, Siemens, McAfee and Avaya - to break down the barriers of distance communication and make it easier for our customers to deploy UC solutions through integration services, interoperability, ease of use, and management. Polycom will continue to work with our industry-leading partners to build on the current momentum and will provide additional updates as we launch new solutions.

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Hp Microsoft Agreement